Bitcoin rally only halfway done, more gains ahead

As an analyst, I believe that the current Bitcoin rally is far from over. The cryptocurrency market has not yet reached an overheating point, which leaves significant room for further growth. My view is based on long-term trends and key indicators that support the prospects for a sustainable price increase.

Despite investor concerns about a possible peak, I believe that Bitcoin’s potential remains significant. Current data suggests that profit taking is premature, and the time for a cycle to complete is on the horizon, but not in the near future. My analysis is intended to allay concerns about a peak in the market and highlight that its current momentum supports growth in the coming months.

The VAPLI index, which I focus on, points to a positive outlook. This volatility-adjusted index is a key tool for understanding Bitcoin’s current position within its broader trend. We are seeing a return to the neutral zone, which supports the idea that Bitcoin has been undervalued for a long time. I attribute this to regulatory pressure and significant sell-offs, especially from governments such as the German government.

The market is now stabilizing and I see Bitcoin reaching its fair value. This is a mid-cycle equilibrium that paves the way for a new rally. We are only halfway through and this is far from an overheated phase, but a preparation for the next stage of growth.

While I acknowledge the possibility of short-term corrections, I am confident that they will not be able to disrupt the overall uptrend. The peaks of this crypto cycle will be much higher in my estimation, and I expect them to be reached in the second half of 2025.

Last month, I shared my forecast on the Telegram channel, stating that the price of Bitcoin could reach $100,000 in the next three months and this happened even earlier - in December 2024. But this is not the limit, the asset can reach a new historical maximum and by the end of 2025 it can reach the $200,000 mark. My confidence in this is based on the expected interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, which can decrease by 50-75 basis points by the end of the year. This will be an important catalyst for further strengthening of Bitcoin's position in the market.